Missing picture

Probably Not

John Wiley..... 2008


Table of Contents

Chapter Title Page
Preface
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1An Introduction To Probability 1
Predicting The Future1
Rule Making 3
Random Events and Probability 5
The Lottery {Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets} 10
Coin Flipping {Fair Games, Looking Backward For Insight} 13
The Coin Flipping Strategy That Can't Lose 19
The Prize Behind The Door {Looking Backward For Insight, Again} 20
The Checkerboard {Dealing With Only Part of the Data Set} 22
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2Probability Distribution Functions and Some Basics 27
The Probability Distribution Function 27
Average and Weighted Averages 32
Expected Values 35
The Basic Coin Flip Game 37
The Standard Deviation 40
The Cumulative Distribution Function 48
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3Building A Bell 54
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4Random Walks 67
The One Dimensional Random Walk 67
What Probability Really Means 75
Diffusion 77
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5Life Insurance and Social Security 82
Insurance As Gambling 83
Life Tables 83
Birth Rates And Population Stability 90
Life Tables Again 91
Premiums 94
Social Security - Sooner Or Later? 98
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6Binomial Probabilities 104
The Binomial Probability Formula 105
Permutations And Combinations 107
Large Number Approximations 109
The Poisson Equation 112
Disease Clusters 114
Clusters 114
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7Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations 104
Pseudorandom Numbers 118
The Middle Squares PSNG 119
The Linear Congruential PSNG 121
An Arbitrary Distribution Generator 124
Monte Carlo Simulations 126
A League Of Our Own 132
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8Some Gambling Games In Detail 136
The Basic Coin Flip Game 136
The Gantt Chart 142
An "Ultimate Winning Strategy" 144
The Game Show 150
Parimutuel Betting 154
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9Traffic Lights and Traffic 158
Outsmarting a Traffic Light? 159
Many Lights and Many Cars 164
Simulating Traffic Flow 164
Simulation Results 167
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10Combined And Conditional Probabilities 178
Functional Notation 178
Conditional Probability 183
Medical Test Results 186
The Shared Birthday Problem 189
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11Scheduling and Waiting 192
Scheduling Appointments in the Doctor's Office 193
Lunch With A Friend 199
Waiting For A Bus 204
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12Stock Market Portfolios 208
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13Benford, Porrondo and Simpson 215
Benford's Law 215
Porrondo's Paradox 221
Simpson's Paradox 228
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14Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation and Chain Letters 234
Degrees of Separation 235
Propagation Along The Networks 238
Some Other Uses Of Networks 242
Neighborhood Chains 249
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15Bird Counting 253
A Walk In The Woods 253
A Model Of Bird Flying Habits 254
Spotting A Bird 259
Putting It All Together 261
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16Statistical Mechanics And Heat 267
Statistical Mechanics 268
Thermoydynamics 276
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17Introduction To Statistical Analysis 280
Sampling 281
Sample Distributions And Standard Deviations 283
Estimating Population Average From A Sample 285
The Student T Distribution 288
Polling Statistics 290
Did A Sample Come From A Given Population? 291
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17Chaos And Quanta 293
Chaos 293
Probability In Quantum Mechanics 301
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17Index 307
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